2026 Week 5 · Conference game
North Texas at Tulsa
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Chapman Stadium
North Texas
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -9.2
- National rank
- 105
- Proj. wins
- 5.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Tulsa
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- -1.2
- National rank
- 72
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Texas
28%
Tulsa
72%
Tulsa 90% CI: 64% – 79% Δ rating 8.0
Tulsa is the model's favorite at 72%. North Texas has a 28% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.5 rating points baked in for Tulsa — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Texas offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Tulsa offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
72°F
Precipitation
31%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Chapman Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No