2026 Week 5 · Conference game
North Texas at Tulsa
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Chapman Stadium
North Texas
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 13.8
- National rank
- 22
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 13%
Tulsa
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -10.0
- National rank
- 104
- Proj. wins
- 5.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Texas
95%
Tulsa
5%
Tulsa 90% CI: 3% – 7% Δ rating 23.8
North Texas is the model's favorite at 95%. Tulsa has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.5 rating points baked in for Tulsa — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Texas offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Tulsa offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Chapman Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No