2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Tulsa at Navy
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Tulsa
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- -1.2
- National rank
- 72
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
Navy
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-1
- Rating
- -2.3
- National rank
- 76
- Proj. wins
- 5.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Tulsa
43%
Navy
57%
Navy 90% CI: 47% – 65% Δ rating 1.1
Navy is the model's favorite at 57%. Tulsa has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.2 rating points baked in for Navy — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Tulsa offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Navy offense
29 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
57°F
Precipitation
15%
Wind
8 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No