Midshipmen · American Athletic
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
GIE projects a -8.1 rating drop and a -32.4pp shift in playoff probability if Navy loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Navy sits at 64th overall with a 1-0 record after dismantling Towson 42–15 in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged from 1.2—a sign the model views that result as expected rather than impressive. The offense showed some teeth early,…
Navy sits at 46th overall with an 11–2 record after a narrow 17–16 home victory over Army in Week 16. The one-point win underscores the Midshipmen's ability to grind out results in tight spots, though the razor-thin margin suggests…
GIE ranks Navy 21 spots lower than the Coaches Poll, reflecting a more cautious view of the Midshipmen's trajectory. While Navy's recent wins—including a dramatic one-point victory over Army and a ten-point road win at Memphis—have…
GIE ranks Navy 24 spots lower than the AP Poll, reflecting a more skeptical view of the Midshipmen's body of work. While Navy's recent wins—including a narrow one-point victory over Army and a dominant road performance at Memphis—have…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
