Midshipmen · American Athletic
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
1%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.
GIE projects a -8.1 rating drop and a -32.4pp shift in playoff probability if Navy loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Navy sits at 46th overall with an 11–2 record after a narrow 17–16 home victory over Army in Week 16. The one-point win underscores the Midshipmen's ability to grind out results in tight spots, though the razor-thin margin suggests…
GIE ranks Navy 21 spots lower than the Coaches Poll, reflecting a more cautious view of the Midshipmen's trajectory. While Navy's recent wins—including a dramatic one-point victory over Army and a ten-point road win at Memphis—have…
GIE ranks Navy 24 spots lower than the AP Poll, reflecting a more skeptical view of the Midshipmen's body of work. While Navy's recent wins—including a narrow one-point victory over Army and a dominant road performance at Memphis—have…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
