2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Navy at UAB
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Protective Stadium
Navy
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-1
- Rating
- -2.3
- National rank
- 76
- Proj. wins
- 5.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
UAB
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -17.0
- National rank
- 123
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Navy
78%
UAB
22%
UAB 90% CI: 17% – 30% Δ rating 14.7
Navy is the model's favorite at 78%. UAB has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.8 rating points baked in for UAB — venue-specific learned value (n=22 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Navy offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UAB offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Protective Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No