UAB

Blazers · American Athletic

Head coach Trent Dilfer Year 3 with UAB

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

3.3

Expected wins

3-7

Proj record

1 to 6

Win range (90%)

#123 (106–134)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs UL Monroe

Home · Sep 12
at Louisiana

Away · Sep 20
vs Samford

Home · Oct 3
vs UTSA

Home · Nov 21

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

49 PCI

Quarterback 56% (5/9 players)
Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 42% (13/31 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 44% (14/32 players)
Secondary 36% (9/25 players)
Special teams 60% (3/5 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Jalen Kitna)

GIE projects a 4.3 rating drop and a 17.4pp shift in playoff probability if UAB loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 43.5% 87th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 17.5% 74th — strong
4th-down aggression 50.0% 94th — elite
Late & close 4.6 yds/play 37th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UAB will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.