2026 Week 1
UAB at Illinois
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
UAB
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -15.8
- National rank
- 125
- Proj. wins
- 3.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Illinois
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.9
- National rank
- 24
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UAB
3%
Illinois
97%
Illinois 90% CI: 96% – 98% Δ rating 28.7
Illinois is the model's favorite at 97%. UAB has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.4 rating points baked in for Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UAB offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Illinois offense
46 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No