2026 Week 5
Navy at Air Force
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Falcon Stadium
Navy
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-1
- Rating
- -2.3
- National rank
- 76
- Proj. wins
- 5.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Air Force
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-1
- Rating
- -2.8
- National rank
- 81
- Proj. wins
- 6.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Navy
44%
Air Force
56%
Air Force 90% CI: 46% – 65% Δ rating 0.5
Air Force is the model's favorite at 56%. Navy has a 44% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Air Force — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Navy offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Air Force offense
29 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Mainly clear
Temperature
67°F
Precipitation
15%
Wind
12 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Falcon Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No