2026 Week 5
Navy at Air Force
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Falcon Stadium
Navy
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.2
- National rank
- 46
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Air Force
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -3.2
- National rank
- 80
- Proj. wins
- 6.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Navy
71%
Air Force
29%
Air Force 90% CI: 22% – 38% Δ rating 9.4
Navy is the model's favorite at 71%. Air Force has a 29% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Air Force — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Navy offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Air Force offense
29 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Falcon Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No