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2026 Week 12 · Conference game

Memphis at Navy

Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Memphis
American Athletic
Record
0-0
Rating
7.6
National rank
39
Proj. wins
7.6
Playoff prob.
2%
Navy
American Athletic
Record
0-0
Rating
6.2
National rank
46
Proj. wins
7.6
Playoff prob.
1%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Memphis
44%
Navy
56%
Navy 90% CI: 46% – 65% Δ rating 1.4

Navy is the model's favorite at 56%. Memphis has a 44% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.2 rating points baked in for Navy — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Memphis offense
40 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Navy offense
28 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Venue
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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