2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Memphis at Navy
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.6
- National rank
- 39
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
Navy
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 6.2
- National rank
- 46
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Memphis
44%
Navy
56%
Navy 90% CI: 46% – 65% Δ rating 1.4
Navy is the model's favorite at 56%. Memphis has a 44% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.2 rating points baked in for Navy — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Navy offense
28 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
- Venue
- Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No