2026 Week 4
Tulsa at Arkansas
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Razorback Stadium
Tulsa
American Athletic
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- -1.2
- National rank
- 72
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
Arkansas
SEC
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -0.3
- National rank
- 70
- Proj. wins
- 3.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Tulsa
53%
Arkansas
47%
Arkansas 90% CI: 38% – 57% Δ rating 0.9
Tulsa is the model's favorite at 53%. Arkansas has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +-1.7 rating points baked in for Arkansas — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Tulsa offense
46 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Arkansas offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
70°F
Precipitation
1%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Razorback Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No