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Arkansas

Razorbacks · SEC

Head coach Sam Pittman Year 6 with Arkansas

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.6
Expected wins
5-6
Proj record
2 to 8
Win range (90%)
#60 (34–85)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Georgia
    Home · Sep 19
  • at Auburn
    Away · Nov 7
  • vs Tennessee
    Home · Oct 10
  • vs Missouri
    Home · Oct 31
  • vs LSU
    Home · Nov 28

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

43 PCI
  • Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
  • Offensive line 47% (9/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 34% (12/35 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 53% (17/32 players)
  • Secondary 42% (10/24 players)
  • Special teams 44% (4/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 43.4% 87th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 19.7% 87th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 37.7% 59th — average
  • Late & close 4.9 yds/play 45th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Arkansas: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Arkansas sits at 2–10 after a 31–17 home loss to Missouri in Week 14, with a GIE rating of 5.1 that places them 53rd nationally. The Razorbacks have struggled to generate consistent offensive production and defensive stops, leaving them…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.