2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Rice at East Carolina
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Rice
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -14.9
- National rank
- 116
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
East Carolina
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -5.6
- National rank
- 88
- Proj. wins
- 5.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Rice
18%
East Carolina
82%
East Carolina 90% CI: 76% – 87% Δ rating 9.3
East Carolina is the model's favorite at 82%. Rice has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for East Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Rice offense
28 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
East Carolina offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
45°F
Precipitation
10%
Wind
2 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No