2026 Week 5 · Conference game
UTSA at Rice
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Rice Stadium
UTSA
American Athletic
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 74
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Rice
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -14.9
- National rank
- 116
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UTSA
75%
Rice
25%
Rice 90% CI: 19% – 33% Δ rating 13.5
UTSA is the model's favorite at 75%. Rice has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.7 rating points baked in for Rice — venue-specific night-game value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UTSA offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Rice offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
83°F
Precipitation
10%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Rice Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No