2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Boise State at Fresno State
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Valley Children's Stadium
Boise State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.1
- National rank
- 64
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.8
- National rank
- 66
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Boise State
47%
Fresno State
53%
Fresno State 90% CI: 44% – 62% Δ rating 1.3
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 53%. Boise State has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Boise State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Fresno State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Valley Children's Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No