2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Boise State at Fresno State
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Valley Children's Stadium
Boise State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 6.9
- National rank
- 47
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Boise State
65%
Fresno State
35%
Fresno State 90% CI: 27% – 44% Δ rating 7.3
Boise State is the model's favorite at 65%. Fresno State has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Boise State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Fresno State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Unknown
Temperature
0°F
Precipitation
6%
Wind
0 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Valley Children's Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No