2026 Week 6 · Conference game
USC at Penn State
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Beaver Stadium
USC
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 16.9
- National rank
- 16
- Proj. wins
- 7.7
- Playoff prob.
- 17%
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 18.1
- National rank
- 15
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 35%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
USC
40%
Penn State
60%
Penn State 90% CI: 51% – 68% Δ rating 1.2
Penn State is the model's favorite at 60%. USC has a 40% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=65 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
USC offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Penn State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 9, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Beaver Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No