2026 Week 6 · Conference game
USC at Penn State
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Beaver Stadium
USC
Big Ten
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 21.6
- National rank
- 8
- Proj. wins
- 8.6
- Playoff prob.
- 43%
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 19.1
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 50%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
USC
52%
Penn State
48%
Penn State 90% CI: 39% – 58% Δ rating 2.5
USC is the model's favorite at 52%. Penn State has a 48% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=65 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
USC offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Penn State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
34°F
Precipitation
6%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Beaver Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No