Louisville: 2026 Week 12 recap

Louisville sits at No. 14 after a dominant 44–17 road win over Georgia Tech in Week 10 lifted the Cardinals' rating from 12.2 to 17.7—a jump of 5.5 points that reflects genuine momentum. At 6–3, the team has exceeded early-season expectations, though GIE projects around 7.8 expected wins, suggesting the schedule or underlying efficiency metrics still see some variance. The red-zone TD rate of 15% hints at missed scoring opportunities despite the dominant margin, a pattern worth monitoring. Louisville heads to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina in Week 11; a win keeps the season on track, though the model assigns just a 4.7% playoff probability—realistic given the ACC landscape.