Louisville: 2026 Week 11 recap

Louisville sits at 25th in GIE's ratings after a dominant 52–24 win over Stanford in Week 9, though the model hasn't budged the Cardinal's evaluation—a sign the victory was expected rather than transformative. At 5–3, they're tracking toward 7.5 expected wins, which underscores a persistent problem: a red-zone TD rate of 15% suggests Louisville is leaving points on the field in moments that matter most. Third-down conversion at 33% compounds the issue—stalling drives before they even reach scoring position. This week brings Georgia Tech on the road, a chance to prove the offense can execute in tighter margins. With a playoff probability near zero, Louisville needs consistency in high-leverage situations, where their late-game performance (4.92) offers at least a glimmer.