Stanford

Cardinal · ACC

Head coach Frank Reich Year 1 with Stanford

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

2.6

Expected wins

3-7

Proj record

0 to 6

Win range (90%)

#115 (95–130)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Hawai'i

Home · Aug 29
vs Elon

Home · Oct 17
vs NC State

Home · Oct 24
at Virginia Tech

Away · Nov 14
at California

Away · Nov 21

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

63 PCI

Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
Offensive line 56% (9/16 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 50% (16/32 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 85% (28/33 players)
Secondary 71% (12/17 players)
Special teams 83% (5/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Ben Gulbranson)

GIE projects a 2.9 rating drop and a 11.6pp shift in playoff probability if Stanford loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 33.8% 31th — below avg
Red-zone TD rate 10.4% 18th — bottom tier
4th-down aggression 40.8% 69th — average
Late & close 4.5 yds/play 33th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Stanford will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.