Cardinal · ACC
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
6 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 2.9 rating drop and a 11.6pp shift in playoff probability if Stanford loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Stanford jumped 39 ELO points after handling Hawai'i. That's real movement—the model shifted its win expectation from 3.2 to 3.6 games. One win doesn't fix a 1391 rating, but it's the direction that matters. The Cardinal offense showed…
Stanford's Elo gain of 39 points represents a meaningful bump—the kind that arrives when a team performs measurably better than its prior rating suggested. The Cardinal's current rating of 1391 sits 39 points higher than last week's 1352,…
Stanford jumped 39 ELO points after beating Hawai'i. The model now projects 3.6 wins. That's not a trajectory — that's a team that got incrementally less bad at one thing and a system that noticed. The Cardinal won't sniff a bowl game,…
Stanford's 37-27 win over Hawai'i in week one moved the Cardinal's ELO rating 39 points higher, from 1352 to 1391—a moderate jump that reflects genuine improvement from the prior forecast, though not a dramatic recalibration of their…
Stanford's 10-point opener over Hawai'i moved the needle: 39 ELO points up. That's real. But the win distribution says 3.67 expected wins across a full season. So we're watching a team that beat a Group of Five school and got rated like…
Stanford's rating jumped 39 Elo points in a single week—a move that reflects what happened on the field: the Cardinal beat Hawai'i 37-27 in week one. That's a notable swing for a team that entered the season at 1352, the kind of climb…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
