Stanford
Cardinal · ACC
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
-
vs Hawai'iHome · Aug 29 - vs ElonHome · Oct 17
-
vs NC StateHome · Oct 24 -
at Virginia TechAway · Nov 14 -
at CaliforniaAway · Nov 21
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 2% (2/5 )
- Offensive line 81% (13/16 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 42% (18/26 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 70% (26/36 )
- Secondary 70% (15/19 )
- Special teams 100% (6/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
6 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Nico Brown WR ← Yale 100 impact
- Leroy Bryant CB ← Washington 49 impact
- Dara Adeyemi OL ← Bucknell
- Aidan Kilstrom OL ← Harvard
- Carter Shaw WR ← UCLA
- Davis Warren QB ← Michigan
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 2.9 rating drop and a 11.6pp shift in playoff probability if Stanford loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 33.8% 31th — below avg
- Red-zone TD rate 10.4% 18th — bottom tier
- 4th-down aggression 40.8% 69th — average
- Late & close 4.5 yds/play 33th — below avg
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Aug 29
vsHawai'iMountain West20%Win prob - Wk 1Sep 5
vsMiamiACC2%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
atDukeACC7%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 27
vsGeorgia TechACC9%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atWake ForestACC8%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atNotre DameFBS Independents1%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17vsElon—
- Wk 8Oct 24
vsNC StateACC15%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
atLouisvilleACC3%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atVirginia TechACC37%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atCaliforniaACC20%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsSMUACC6%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.