Yellow Jackets · ACC
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
3%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.
GIE projects a 8.4 rating drop and a 33.8pp shift in playoff probability if Georgia Tech loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
GIE ranks Georgia Tech 13 spots below the Coaches Poll, viewing the Yellow Jackets as a #35 team rather than a top-25 squad. The model's skepticism centers on recent performance against ranked competition: Georgia Tech lost to Georgia…
GIE ranks Georgia Tech 11 spots lower than the AP Poll, reflecting a more skeptical read on recent performance. The Yellow Jackets have struggled in their last three games, losing to Georgia 16–9 and Pittsburgh 42–28 at home while…
Georgia Tech sits at 9–4 with a rating of 9.3, holding rank 35 in GIE's assessment. The Yellow Jackets' most recent outing was a home loss to Georgia in Week 14, falling 16–9 in a defensive struggle that left points on the table. That…
GIE ranks Georgia Tech 13 spots lower than the CFP Committee, reflecting a more cautious view of the Yellow Jackets' recent trajectory. While Georgia Tech notched a road win at Boston College (36–34), the model is skeptical of the team's…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
