Tar Heels · ACC
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -4.1 rating drop and a -16.3pp shift in playoff probability if North Carolina loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
North Carolina opened the season with a road upset over TCU, claiming a 15-10 victory in Week 1—a result that GIE values at a 3.5 rating, placing the Tar Heels at 56th nationally. The rating held flat week-over-week, suggesting the model…
North Carolina gained 31 ELO points on one win. That's a modest climb—the kind that happens when a 4-win team beats a worse team on the road. The Tar Heels are still projected for 4.4 wins. A single road upset doesn't rewire the season.…
North Carolina's ELO rating jumped 31 points this week, moving from 1418 to 1449—a swing that reflects something more than a single win. The model now projects the Tar Heels to finish with 4.4 expected wins, which places them squarely in…
North Carolina cracked +31 Elo points after beating TCU on the road. The Tar Heels are now projected to win 4.3 games this season—a floor, not a ceiling. Road wins against Power teams don't happen by accident. Mack Brown's rebuild just…
North Carolina's rating climbed 31 points this week—the kind of jump that typically signals a clean, unambiguous win against a credible opponent.
North Carolina climbed 31 ELO points after TCU. That's the second-biggest single-week jump for the program since the model started tracking. The floor isn't what matters anymore—it's whether they can sustain it. One road win doesn't…
North Carolina moved up 31 rating points this week, a jump that reflects genuine competitive improvement rather than noise. The team's expected win total rose to 4.354, a meaningful shift in a 12-game season. The win distribution now…
North Carolina sits at 4–8 after a 42–19 road loss to NC State in Week 14, a result that underscores the Tar Heels' struggles this season. The team's GIE rating of –6.6 places them at 91st nationally—a reflection of inconsistency on both…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
