Tar Heels · ACC
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.
GIE projects a -4.1 rating drop and a -16.3pp shift in playoff probability if North Carolina loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
North Carolina sits at 4–8 after a 42–19 road loss to NC State in Week 14, a result that underscores the Tar Heels' struggles this season. The team's GIE rating of –6.6 places them at 91st nationally—a reflection of inconsistency on both…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
