Tar Heels · ACC
Head coach Bill Belichick Year 2 with North Carolina
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes North Carolina's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Aug 29 | vs TCU Big 12 · neutral | Win, 15-10 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs East Tennessee State Non-FBS | Win, 35-3 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at Clemson ACC | Loss, 20-28 Final |
| Wk 4 | Bye | |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs Notre Dame FBS Independents | Loss, 26-37 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Pittsburgh ACC | Win, 21-17 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Duke ACC | Win, 24-20 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs Syracuse ACC | Loss, 30-31 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Miami ACC | Loss, 35-38 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at UConn FBS Independents | Win, 38-21 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 15 | vs Louisville ACC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Virginia ACC | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | vs NC State ACC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -4.1 rating drop and a -16.3pp shift in playoff probability if North Carolina loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
29 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.7 rating
19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trech KekahunaWR From Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 62 |
| Mason HumphreyWR From Lehigh | Lehigh | 59 |
| Jordan WashingtonTE From Texas | Texas | 43 |
| Jaxxon WarrenTE From Colorado State | Colorado State | 37 |
| Jelani ThurmanTE From Ohio State | Ohio State | 33 |
| Ade WillieDB From Michigan State | Michigan State | 33 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
