2026 Week 1 · Neutral site
North Carolina at TCU
Friday, August 28, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Aviva Stadium
North Carolina
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -6.6
- National rank
- 91
- Proj. wins
- 3.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 8.3
- National rank
- 37
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Carolina
13%
TCU
87%
TCU 90% CI: 82% – 90% Δ rating 14.9
TCU is the model's favorite at 87%. North Carolina has a 13% path. No home-field adjustment applied (neutral site).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Carolina offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
TCU offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast for neutral-site venues will arrive once the venues table ships (#53).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, August 28, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Aviva Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- Yes