TCU

Horned Frogs · Big 12

Head coach Sonny Dykes Year 4 with TCU

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

6.8

Expected wins

7-5

Proj record

4 to 10

Win range (90%)

#43 (22–69)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Utah

Home · Nov 21
at Arizona

Away · Nov 7
vs BYU

Home · Oct 3
at Baylor

Away · Oct 17
vs Kansas State

Home · Nov 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

55 PCI

Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
Offensive line 55% (12/22 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 51% (19/37 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 48% (16/33 players)
Secondary 55% (12/22 players)
Special teams 60% (6/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Josh Hoover)

GIE projects a 0.0 rating drop and a 0.0pp shift in playoff probability if TCU loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 43.8% 88th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 15.6% 60th — average
4th-down aggression 45.0% 85th — strong
Late & close 4.5 yds/play 32th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about TCU will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.