TCU
Horned Frogs · Big 12
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
1%
Baseline projection.
-
vs UtahHome · Nov 21 -
at ArizonaAway · Nov 7 -
vs BYUHome · Oct 3 -
at BaylorAway · Oct 17 -
vs KansasHome · Oct 31
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 7% (4/5 )
- Offensive line 95% (18/19 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 61% (22/29 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 37% (29/33 )
- Secondary 70% (18/23 )
- Special teams 99% (7/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Jacob Fields S ← Louisiana Tech 164 impact
- Kalen Carroll CB ← Central Michigan 104 impact
- Jeremy Scott WR ← South Alabama 76 impact
- Koron Hayward LB ← Western Kentucky 69 impact
- Jaden Craig QB ← Harvard 60 impact
- Michael Short LB ← Virginia Tech 43 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 0.0 rating drop and a 0.0pp shift in playoff probability if TCU loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 43.8% 88th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 15.6% 60th — average
- 4th-down aggression 45.0% 85th — strong
- Late & close 4.5 yds/play 32th — below avg
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Aug 29
vsNorth Carolina· neutralACC87%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 13vsGrambling—
- Wk 3Sep 20
vsArkansas StateSun Belt92%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atUCFBig 1271%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsBYUBig 1235%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
atBaylorBig 1263%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
vsWest VirginiaBig 1290%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsKansasBig 1270%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atArizonaBig 1232%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsKansas StateBig 1262%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
vsUtahBig 1219%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 27
atTexas TechBig 126%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.