2026 Week 5 · Conference game
BYU at TCU
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Amon G. Carter Stadium
BYU
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 17.5
- National rank
- 17
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 48%
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.2
- National rank
- 32
- Proj. wins
- 6.5
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
BYU
61%
TCU
39%
TCU 90% CI: 30% – 48% Δ rating 6.3
BYU is the model's favorite at 61%. TCU has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for TCU — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
BYU offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
TCU offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
86°F
Precipitation
12%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No