4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

2026 Week 7 · Conference game

TCU at Baylor

Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

McLane Stadium

TCU
Big 12
Record
0-0
Rating
8.3
National rank
37
Proj. wins
6.8
Playoff prob.
1%
Baylor
Big 12
Record
0-0
Rating
1.4
National rank
71
Proj. wins
5.1
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

TCU
68%
Baylor
32%
Baylor 90% CI: 24% – 41% Δ rating 6.9

TCU is the model's favorite at 68%. Baylor has a 32% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Baylor — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

TCU offense
40 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Baylor offense
37 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
McLane Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

← Home