2026 Week 7 · Conference game
TCU at Baylor
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
McLane Stadium
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.2
- National rank
- 32
- Proj. wins
- 6.5
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
Baylor
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 6.8
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
TCU
61%
Baylor
39%
Baylor 90% CI: 31% – 48% Δ rating 4.4
TCU is the model's favorite at 61%. Baylor has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Baylor — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
TCU offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Baylor offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- McLane Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No