2026 Week 7 · Conference game
TCU at Baylor
Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
McLane Stadium
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 8.3
- National rank
- 37
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Baylor
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.4
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 5.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
TCU
68%
Baylor
32%
Baylor 90% CI: 24% – 41% Δ rating 6.9
TCU is the model's favorite at 68%. Baylor has a 32% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Baylor — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
TCU offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Baylor offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 16, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- McLane Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No