2026 Week 4 · Conference game
TCU at UCF
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
FBC Mortgage Stadium
TCU
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.2
- National rank
- 32
- Proj. wins
- 6.5
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
UCF
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
TCU
57%
UCF
43%
UCF 90% CI: 35% – 53% Δ rating 5.7
TCU is the model's favorite at 57%. UCF has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.6 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific learned value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
TCU offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UCF offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
75°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- FBC Mortgage Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No