UCF

Knights · Big 12

Head coach Scott Frost Year 2 with UCF

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

5.6

Expected wins

6-6

Proj record

2 to 9

Win range (90%)

#79 (52–103)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at Pittsburgh

Away · Sep 12
at Houston

Away · Oct 3
vs BYU

Home · Oct 24
at Kansas

Away · Nov 7
vs Iowa State

Home · Nov 20

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

30 score

Quarterback 0% (0/5 )
Offensive line 50% (12/24 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 39% (15/28 )
Front 7 (DL/LB) 37% (12/28 )
Secondary 71% (9/21 )
Special teams 0% (3/6 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.1 rating

31 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Bruno Dall EDGE ← Akron 172 impact
Alonza Barnett III QB ← James Madison 141 impact
Jahleel Culbreath LB ← Old Dominion 116 impact
Landen Chambers RB ← Central Arkansas 105 impact
Josh Derry WR ← Monmouth 105 impact
Jonathan Bibbs WR ← UL Monroe 80 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Tayven Jackson)

GIE projects a -1.5 rating drop and a -5.9pp shift in playoff probability if UCF loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 31.5% 22th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 13.3% 35th — below avg
4th-down aggression 47.9% 91th — elite
Late & close 5.9 yds/play 72th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UCF will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.