UCF

Knights · Big 12

Head coach Scott Frost Year 1 with UCF

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

5.6

Expected wins

6-6

Proj record

2 to 9

Win range (90%)

#79 (51–103)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at Pittsburgh

Away · Sep 12
at Houston

Away · Oct 3
vs BYU

Home · Oct 24
vs Iowa State

Home · Nov 20
vs TCU

Home · Sep 26

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

39 PCI

Quarterback 33% (2/6 players)
Offensive line 55% (11/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 34% (10/29 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 44% (14/32 players)
Secondary 50% (11/22 players)
Special teams 0% (0/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Tayven Jackson)

GIE projects a -1.5 rating drop and a -5.9pp shift in playoff probability if UCF loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 31.5% 22th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 13.3% 35th — below avg
4th-down aggression 47.9% 91th — elite
Late & close 5.9 yds/play 72th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UCF will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.