Conference game
Iowa State at UCF
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 6:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Iowa State 27% Underdog
UCF 73% Favorite
UCF is the model's favorite at 73%. Iowa State has a 27% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific night-game value (n=55 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa State offense
32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
UCF offense
Higher fit 36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup