2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Iowa State at UCF
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Iowa State
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.8
- National rank
- 52
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
UCF
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Iowa State
34%
UCF
66%
UCF 90% CI: 57% – 74% Δ rating 0.3
UCF is the model's favorite at 66%. Iowa State has a 34% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.5 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific night-game value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Iowa State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UCF offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- FBC Mortgage Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No