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2026 Week 12 · Conference game

Iowa State at UCF

Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC

FBC Mortgage Stadium

Iowa State
Big 12
Record
0-0
Rating
9.9
National rank
33
Proj. wins
7.1
Playoff prob.
1%
UCF
Big 12
Record
0-0
Rating
-1.2
National rank
76
Proj. wins
5.6
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Iowa State
67%
UCF
33%
UCF 90% CI: 26% – 42% Δ rating 11.1

Iowa State is the model's favorite at 67%. UCF has a 33% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.5 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific night-game value (n=56 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Iowa State offense
32 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

UCF offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, November 20, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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