2026 Week 6 · Conference game
UCF at Oklahoma State
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Boone Pickens Stadium
UCF
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
Oklahoma State
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 8.7
- National rank
- 41
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UCF
36%
Oklahoma State
64%
Oklahoma State 90% CI: 55% – 72% Δ rating 3.2
Oklahoma State is the model's favorite at 64%. UCF has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.4 rating points baked in for Oklahoma State — venue-specific learned value (n=57 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UCF offense
44 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Oklahoma State offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
54°F
Precipitation
7%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Boone Pickens Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No