2026 Week 9 · Conference game
Baylor at UCF
Friday, October 30, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Baylor
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 6.8
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
UCF
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Baylor
37%
UCF
63%
UCF 90% CI: 54% – 71% Δ rating 1.3
UCF is the model's favorite at 63%. Baylor has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.5 rating points baked in for UCF — venue-specific night-game value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Baylor offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UCF offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 30, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- FBC Mortgage Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No