2026 Week 5 · Conference game
UCF at Houston
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
TDECU Stadium
UCF
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
Houston
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 10.8
- National rank
- 34
- Proj. wins
- 6.6
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UCF
25%
Houston
75%
Houston 90% CI: 67% – 81% Δ rating 5.3
Houston is the model's favorite at 75%. UCF has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for Houston — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UCF offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Houston offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
90°F
Precipitation
36%
Wind
8 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- TDECU Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No