2026 Week 5
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Kenan Stadium
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 26.7
- National rank
- 3
- Proj. wins
- 9.1
- Playoff prob.
- 58%
North Carolina
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 4.5
- National rank
- 59
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Notre Dame
94%
North Carolina
6%
North Carolina 90% CI: 4% – 8% Δ rating 22.2
Notre Dame is the model's favorite at 94%. North Carolina has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.1 rating points baked in for North Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Notre Dame offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
North Carolina offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Partly cloudy
Temperature
68°F
Precipitation
14%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Kenan Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No