Conference game
Louisville at North Carolina
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 7:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Louisville 77% Favorite
North Carolina 23% Underdog
Louisville is the model's favorite at 77%. North Carolina has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for North Carolina — venue-specific night-game value (n=51 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Louisville offense
Higher fit 33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
North Carolina offense
29 / 100 Style-neutral matchup