North Texas: 2026 Week 11 recap

North Texas sits at 6–2 with a rating of −0.6, holding rank 72 overall. The Mean Green's most recent outing—a 48–41 home win over Florida Atlantic in Week 9—kept them firmly in contention, though GIE projects them for 8.6 expected wins, suggesting tighter margins ahead. The red-zone efficiency gap is real: at a 23% touchdown rate in scoring territory, North Texas is leaving points on the field, a vulnerability that could compound in close games. Their third-down conversion rate of 44% also sits below optimal. Up next is a home clash with Rice in Week 10; while the matchup looks favorable on paper, the Mean Green's conference title odds remain slim at roughly 10%, and the model gives them no path to the playoff. Execution in the red zone will determine whether they push toward nine wins or stall.