Sacramento State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Sacramento State sits at 2–8 after a three-point home loss to Toledo in Week 10, a result that nudged the Hornets up 4.2 rating points to −24.9 according to GIE. That modest gain reflects a team scrapping for relevance in a brutal MAC season; their red-zone efficiency remains a structural problem at 24%, meaning scoring opportunities routinely end in field goals or empty drives. The Hornets head to Central Michigan this week with zero path to the postseason and a playoff probability that reflects the math: their expected win total sits at 2.79. GIE sees Sacramento State as a clear underdog across remaining games, but the slight weekly rating bump suggests the offense found some rhythm despite the loss—a small mercy for a program fighting just to hit three wins.