Miami (OH): 2026 Week 12 recap

Miami (OH) sits at 5–4 with a rating of −4.9, having dropped 0.7 points following a 34–31 home loss to Buffalo in Week 10. The RedHawks remain ranked 92nd overall and hold zero playoff probability; their expected-wins total of 6.26 suggests they're tracking toward a middling bowl outcome at best. What's telling: a red-zone TD rate of just 15% reveals an offense that struggles to convert when it matters most, while a third-down conversion rate of 31% compounds those stalling drives. Late-game leverage performance (8.75) hints at competitive moments, but execution in critical sequences hasn't followed. Miami (OH) hosts Ohio this week—a chance to steady the ship, though the rating trajectory indicates they'll need sustained offensive efficiency to shift the projection arc.