Buffalo: 2026 Week 11 recap

Buffalo sits at 5–3 with a rating of −12, holding rank 118 nationally after a 31–24 home win over Bowling Green in Week 8. The rating hasn't budged since last week, reflecting a stalled trajectory despite the victory; the Bulls are tracking toward 7.7 expected wins and have effectively no path to the conference title or playoffs. A red-zone touchdown rate of just 15% explains much of the offensive ceiling—scoring opportunities are there, but execution in the end zone remains a chronic weakness. The next test comes on the road at Miami (OH) in Week 10, a mid-MAC matchup where Buffalo needs a clear win to build momentum, though the model's projections suggest incremental progress is the realistic ceiling.