Hawai'i: 2026 Week 12 recap

Hawai'i sits at 3–6 and ranked 109th by GIE after a narrow 17–14 road win over UTEP in Week 10 that only marginally moved the needle. The model dipped the Rainbow Warriors' rating by 0.7 points this week, keeping them firmly in the basement of the Mountain West. The underlying numbers reveal systemic problems: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 15% means scoring chances evaporate near the goal line, while fourth-down aggression of 33% suggests conservative play-calling. With an expected-win total of 4.4, Hawai'i has exhausted playoff hope. North Dakota State visits this week in a non-conference matchup that offers little path to meaningful improvement by season's end.