UTEP
Miners · Mountain West
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
- vs Texas SouthernHome · Sep 13
-
vs Oregon StateHome · Sep 27 -
vs NevadaHome · Oct 10 -
vs San José StateHome · Oct 17
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 1% (3/5 )
- Offensive line 89% (16/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 30% (23/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 97% (32/33 )
- Secondary 89% (23/26 )
- Special teams 100% (8/10 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Carver Cheeks WR ← Northern Colorado 85 impact
- Sterling Miles DE ← Eastern Michigan 72 impact
- EJ Colson Jr. QB ← Incarnate Word 50 impact
- Lamar Sperling RB ← Buffalo 34 impact
- Kaleb Miles CB ← East Texas A&M 33 impact
- Raymond Moore III QB ← Morgan State 25 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -1.6 rating drop and a -6.5pp shift in playoff probability if UTEP loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 31.3% 20th — bottom tier
- Red-zone TD rate 12.1% 26th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 40.6% 68th — average
- Late & close 5.8 yds/play 71th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
atOklahomaSEC1%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 13vsTexas Southern—
- Wk 3Sep 19
atMichiganBig Ten2%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 27
vsOregon StatePac-1253%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atNew MexicoMountain West7%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsNevadaMountain West45%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsSan José StateMountain West48%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
atNorth Dakota StateMountain West— - Wk 10Nov 7
vsHawai'iMountain West11%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsWyomingMountain West39%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atAir ForceMountain West11%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
atNorthern IllinoisMountain West40%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.