UTEP

Miners · Mountain West

Head coach Scotty Walden Year 2 with UTEP

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

3.6

Expected wins

4-7

Proj record

1 to 7

Win range (90%)

#126 (110–135)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Texas Southern

Home · Sep 13
vs Oregon State

Home · Sep 27
vs Nevada

Home · Oct 10
vs San José State

Home · Oct 17

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

45 PCI

Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 43% (12/28 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 30% (9/30 players)
Secondary 38% (8/21 players)
Special teams 33% (2/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Skyler Locklear)

GIE projects a -1.6 rating drop and a -6.5pp shift in playoff probability if UTEP loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 31.3% 20th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 12.1% 26th — below avg
4th-down aggression 40.6% 68th — average
Late & close 5.8 yds/play 71th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UTEP will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.