Conference game
UTEP at Northern Illinois
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
UTEP 49% Underdog
Northern Illinois 51% Favorite
Northern Illinois is the model's favorite at 51%. UTEP has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Northern Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=44 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UTEP offense
Higher fit 36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Northern Illinois offense
32 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup