2026 Week 12 · Conference game
UTEP at Air Force
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Falcon Stadium
UTEP
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -19.7
- National rank
- 129
- Proj. wins
- 5.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Air Force
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-1
- Rating
- -2.8
- National rank
- 81
- Proj. wins
- 6.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UTEP
8%
Air Force
92%
Air Force 90% CI: 88% – 94% Δ rating 16.9
Air Force is the model's favorite at 92%. UTEP has a 8% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Air Force — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UTEP offense
50 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Air Force offense
29 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Falcon Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No