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2026 Week 5 · Conference game

UTEP at New Mexico

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC

University Stadium (NM)

UTEP
Mountain West
Record
1-2
Rating
-19.7
National rank
129
Proj. wins
5.2
Playoff prob.
0%
New Mexico
Mountain West
Record
2-1
Rating
4.8
National rank
58
Proj. wins
7.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

UTEP
3%
New Mexico
97%
New Mexico 90% CI: 95% – 98% Δ rating 24.5

New Mexico is the model's favorite at 97%. UTEP has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

UTEP offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

New Mexico offense
34 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Conditions
Clear
Temperature
78°F
Precipitation
4%
Wind
3 mph

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Venue
University Stadium (NM)
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
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