2026 Week 5 · Conference game
UTEP at New Mexico
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
University Stadium (NM)
UTEP
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -17.5
- National rank
- 129
- Proj. wins
- 3.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
New Mexico
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 0.9
- National rank
- 73
- Proj. wins
- 7.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UTEP
7%
New Mexico
93%
New Mexico 90% CI: 90% – 95% Δ rating 18.4
New Mexico is the model's favorite at 93%. UTEP has a 7% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UTEP offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
New Mexico offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- University Stadium (NM)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No