2026 Week 5 · Conference game
UTEP at New Mexico
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
University Stadium (NM)
UTEP
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -19.7
- National rank
- 129
- Proj. wins
- 5.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
New Mexico
Mountain West
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 4.8
- National rank
- 58
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UTEP
3%
New Mexico
97%
New Mexico 90% CI: 95% – 98% Δ rating 24.5
New Mexico is the model's favorite at 97%. UTEP has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UTEP offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
New Mexico offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
78°F
Precipitation
4%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- University Stadium (NM)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No