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New Mexico

Lobos · Mountain West

Head coach Jason Eck Year 1 with New Mexico

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
7.3
Expected wins
7-5
Proj record
4 to 10
Win range (90%)
#66 (40–93)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
18%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs UNLV
    Home · Nov 15
  • vs North Dakota State
    Home · Oct 24
  • at Wyoming
    Away · Nov 22
  • vs Air Force
    Home · Nov 28
  • at Nevada
    Away · Nov 7

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

27 PCI
  • Quarterback 17% (1/6 players)
  • Offensive line 37% (7/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 25% (6/24 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 35% (11/31 players)
  • Secondary 28% (7/25 players)
  • Special teams 33% (2/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.3% 45th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.7% 29th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 46.1% 88th — strong
  • Late & close 5.8 yds/play 69th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    New Mexico: 2025 Week 16 recap

    New Mexico sits at 9–4 with a rating of 0.9, ranked 73rd by GIE. The Lobos' most recent action came in Week 14, a 23–17 home win over San Diego State that kept their season on track. That victory underscored their ability to grind out…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.