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2026 Week 1

Central Michigan at New Mexico

Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

University Stadium (NM)

Central Michigan
Mid-American
Record
0-0
Rating
-8.8
National rank
100
Proj. wins
5.4
Playoff prob.
0%
New Mexico
Mountain West
Record
0-0
Rating
0.9
National rank
73
Proj. wins
7.3
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Central Michigan
18%
New Mexico
82%
New Mexico 90% CI: 75% – 87% Δ rating 9.7

New Mexico is the model's favorite at 82%. Central Michigan has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Central Michigan offense
29 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

New Mexico offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
University Stadium (NM)
Conference game
No
Neutral site
No

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