Conference game
Air Force at New Mexico
Friday, November 27, 2026 · 4:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Air Force 13% Underdog
New Mexico 87% Favorite
New Mexico is the model's favorite at 87%. Air Force has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Air Force offense
24 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
New Mexico offense
Higher fit 48 / 100 Style-neutral matchup