2026 Week 4
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Aggie Memorial Stadium
New Mexico
Mountain West
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 4.8
- National rank
- 58
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
New Mexico State
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -15.7
- National rank
- 119
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
New Mexico
91%
New Mexico State
9%
New Mexico State 90% CI: 7% – 13% Δ rating 20.5
New Mexico is the model's favorite at 91%. New Mexico State has a 9% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for New Mexico State — venue-specific learned value (n=41 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
New Mexico offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
New Mexico State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
80°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Aggie Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No