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New Mexico State

Aggies · Conference USA

Head coach Tony Sanchez Year 2 with New Mexico State

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.2
Expected wins
4-7
Proj record
1 to 8
Win range (90%)
#121 (101–134)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
1%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs New Mexico
    Home · Sep 26
  • vs Western Kentucky
    Home · Oct 2
  • at Florida International
    Away · Oct 7
  • at Sam Houston
    Away · Oct 22

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

41 PCI
  • Quarterback 43% (3/7 players)
  • Offensive line 29% (6/21 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 52% (16/31 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 40% (10/25 players)
  • Secondary 52% (11/21 players)
  • Special teams 11% (1/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Logan Fife)

GIE projects a 1.7 rating drop and a 6.9pp shift in playoff probability if New Mexico State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 41.7% 79th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.9% 32th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 29.5% 20th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.6 yds/play 85th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    New Mexico State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    New Mexico State sits at 4–8 after dropping a home contest to Middle Tennessee 31–24 in Week 14, leaving the Aggies ranked 123rd by GIE with a rating of −15.5. The loss underscored a season-long struggle to close out games; New Mexico…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.