2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -16.5
- National rank
- 122
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
New Mexico State
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -15.7
- National rank
- 119
- Proj. wins
- 3.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Western Kentucky
40%
New Mexico State
60%
New Mexico State 90% CI: 51% – 69% Δ rating 0.8
New Mexico State is the model's favorite at 60%. Western Kentucky has a 40% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for New Mexico State — venue-specific learned value (n=41 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Western Kentucky offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
New Mexico State offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
66°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Aggie Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No