2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Western Kentucky
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.6
- National rank
- 69
- Proj. wins
- 0.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
New Mexico State
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -15.5
- National rank
- 123
- Proj. wins
- 0.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Western Kentucky
86%
New Mexico State
14%
New Mexico State 90% CI: 10% – 19% Δ rating 17.1
Western Kentucky is the model's favorite at 86%. New Mexico State has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for New Mexico State — venue-specific learned value (n=41 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Western Kentucky offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
New Mexico State offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Aggie Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No