2026 Week 6 · Conference game
New Mexico State at Florida International
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Pitbull Stadium
New Mexico State
Conference USA
- Record
- 1-3
- Rating
- -15.7
- National rank
- 119
- Proj. wins
- 3.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Florida International
Conference USA
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -12.3
- National rank
- 112
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
New Mexico State
37%
Florida International
63%
Florida International 90% CI: 54% – 72% Δ rating 3.4
Florida International is the model's favorite at 63%. New Mexico State has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.0 rating points baked in for Florida International — venue-specific learned value (n=5 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
New Mexico State offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Florida International offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
76°F
Precipitation
18%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Pitbull Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No