2026 Week 8 · Conference game
North Dakota State at New Mexico
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC
University Stadium (NM)
North Dakota State
Mountain West
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 10.6
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 10.2
- Playoff prob.
- 58%
New Mexico
Mountain West
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 4.8
- National rank
- 58
- Proj. wins
- 7.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Dakota State
61%
New Mexico
39%
New Mexico 90% CI: 30% – 48% Δ rating 5.8
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 61%. New Mexico has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for New Mexico — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Dakota State offense
30 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
New Mexico offense
25 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- University Stadium (NM)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No