Rainbow Warriors · Mountain West
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 4.9 rating drop and a 19.7pp shift in playoff probability if Hawai'i loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Hawai'i sits at 0–2 with a rating of –2.6, ranking 83rd nationally. The Rainbow Warriors' season opener against UNLV exposed significant offensive inefficiency: they managed just 6 points at home in a 21–6 loss, a result that hasn't moved…
Hawai'i lost 73 ELO in two weeks. That's not variance—that's the model recalibrating after watching a team get outscored 58-33 by UNLV and Stanford. The win distribution now peaks at 6 victories. The Rainbow Warriors didn't fall off a…
Hawai'i has lost 73 rating points in a single week—a collapse severe enough to signal a program in crisis rather than a team absorbing normal variance.
Hawai'i lost 39 ELO points in one game — roughly what a mid-tier FBS program sheds over an entire losing season. Stanford won 37-27. The Rainbow Warriors are now projected at 6.8 wins. That's what happens when your opening statement gets…
Hawai'i's rating tumbled 39 points this week, landing the team at 1482 ELO after opening the season at 1521. That's a steeper drop than a single loss typically produces, which means the manner of the defeat—or the gap between expectation…
Hawai'i lost 39 ELO points in one week. That's the swing you see after a close road loss to a Power Conference team—not catastrophic, but a hard reset. The model still projects 6.8 wins. Still possible. Just significantly less forgiving…
Hawai'i opened the 2026 season at 1521 ELO and has dropped to 1482 after a 37-27 loss to Stanford in Week 1—a 39-point swing that reflects not just the defeat but the margin's significance relative to what the model expected.
Hawai'i lost 39 ELO points in one week. That's not noise—that's the model recalibrating after Stanford beat them 37-27. The expected-win line dropped from 7.6 to 6.8. One road loss and the ceiling moves. This is what happens when your…
Hawai'i's opening loss to Stanford cost the Rainbow Warriors 39 rating points, a sharp single-week drop that reflects both the result and the margin of defeat. The team now sits at an ELO of 1482, down from a preseason projection of…
Hawai'i sits at 9–4 with a rating of 1.7, holding rank 68 in GIE's assessment. The Rainbow Warriors dominated Wyoming 27–7 in Week 14, a decisive home win that underscored their ability to control games against Mountain West competition.…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
