2026 Week 5 · Conference game
San José State at Hawai'i
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:59 AM UTC
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
San José State
Mountain West
- Record
- 2-2
- Rating
- -13.9
- National rank
- 115
- Proj. wins
- 6.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Hawai'i
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -7.1
- National rank
- 98
- Proj. wins
- 5.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
San José State
20%
Hawai'i
80%
Hawai'i 90% CI: 73% – 85% Δ rating 6.8
Hawai'i is the model's favorite at 80%. San José State has a 20% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Hawai'i — venue-specific learned value (n=26 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
San José State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Hawai'i offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Mainly clear
Temperature
76°F
Precipitation
24%
Wind
10 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:59 AM UTC
- Venue
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No